报告题目：The Driving Force for 2014 Dengue Outbreak in Guangdong, China

报告时间：2017年12月12日上午8:30-11:30

报告地点：数学与统计学院金融实验室

报告人：山西大学 靳祯 教授

报告摘要：Dengue fever has rapidly spread in recent decades to become the most globally expansive viral vector-borne disease.In mainland China,a number of dengue outbreaks have been reported since 1978, but the worst epidemic in decades, involving 45230 cases and 76 imported cases,resulting in six deaths in Guangdong province, emerged in 2014. Reasons for this ongoing surge in dengue, both imported and autochthonous, are unclear and demand urgent investigation. In the talk, a seasonally-driven dynamic epidemiological model was used to simulate dengue transmission data recorded from the unprecedented outbreak. Sensitivity analysis demonstrate that delayed mosquito control, the continuous importations between the end of April to the early of July, the transmission of asymptomatic dengue infections, and the abnormally high precipitation from May to August might be the causal factors for the unprecedented outbreak. Our results suggested that the earlier and more frequent control measures in targeting immature and adult mosquitoes were effective in preventing larger outbreaks, and enhanced frontier health and quarantine from the end of April to the early of July for international communications and travelers.

专家简介：

山西省数学会理事长。中国生物数学学会副理事长，中国数学会理事。《生物数学学报》常务编委，国际SCI收录期刊《Journal of Applied Mathematics》、《 International Journal of Biomathematics 》、《Plos One》编委，《Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society》副主编，美国数学评论《Mathematical Reviews (MR)》评论员，德国《数学文摘》评论员。先后山西省高等学校青年学科带头人，获得教育部新世纪优秀人才，山西省教学名师，山西省优秀科技工作者，山西省新世纪学术技术带头人，全国优秀教师，山西省委联系高级专家，山西省科教兴晋突出贡献专家，享受国务院政府特殊津贴，山西省五一劳动奖章获得者，山西省高等学校拔尖创新人才。山西省科技创新团队带头人。主持国家自然基金项目5项参与2项，其中国家基金重点项目1项，高等学校博士点基金2项，其中优先资助1项，科技部重点研发项目1项，其他省部级项目20余项。在《Scientific Reports》、《J. R. Soc. Interface》、《PLoS One》、《Bull. Math. Biol.》、《J. Theor. Biol.》、《Phys. Rev. E》等国内外重要学术期刊发表学术论文200余篇，被SCI收录150篇，其中二区以上论文61篇。发表在《PLoS One》的论文“Analysis of Rabies in China: Transmission Dynamics and Control”被顶尖的国际医学杂志《The Lancet Infectious Diseases（柳叶刀传染病）》引用和评论，论文“Pattern formation in a spatial S-I model with non-linear incidence rates”入选“2008年中国百篇最具影响国际学术论文”（通信作者），在科学出版社、世界科学出版社及高等教育出版社出版专著（合著）7部。在生物动力系统、复杂网络等方面做出了卓有成效的工作。